In recent months, the Victorian TAFE Association (VTA) has raised serious concerns over the proposed international student limits, which are set to significantly and disproportionately affect Victorian TAFEs. As the primary representatives of the state's public Vocational Education and Training (VET) providers, the VTA has been actively advocating for changes to ensure that the adverse effects of these limits are mitigated. With the peak body reaching out to key government figures, including the Hon. Jason Clare MP, Minister for Education, and the Hon. Andrew Giles MP, Minister for Skills and Training, the message is clear: urgent action is needed to protect Victorian TAFEs from enduring further setbacks.
Understanding the Problem
The crux of the issue lies in the government’s decision to use 2023-2024 levels of international student enrolments to set limits for future commencements. While this may seem like a straightforward approach, it overlooks the unique challenges that Victorian TAFEs have faced in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Victoria, home to Australia’s strictest and most prolonged lockdowns, is still grappling with the recovery of its education sector. For many TAFEs, enrolments have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, making the current proposal a potentially devastating blow to an already vulnerable system.
According to the VTA, in 2023, Victorian international onshore commencements in VET with government providers were still down 53% from 2019 levels. This sharp drop is a direct consequence of the state’s extended lockdowns and border closures, which severely hindered the flow of international students. By contrast, private VET providers in Victoria have seen a 15% increase in international student commencements over the same period, demonstrating that the public sector has borne the brunt of the disruption.
Victoria’s national share of international student commencements in VET has also suffered a significant decline, dropping from 35% in 2019 to just 23% in 2023. This decline highlights the deep impact of the pandemic on Victoria’s VET system and underscores the need for targeted support. However, the proposed international student caps fail to acknowledge this, instead setting limits based on the current, historically low enrolment figures. As the VTA has pointed out, this approach would lock Victorian TAFEs into their lowest commencement numbers since data reporting began in 2005, effectively entrenching the damage caused by COVID-19 and setting the sector back by decades.
The Importance of International Students to Victorian TAFEs
International students play a crucial role in sustaining the financial viability of Victorian TAFEs. Beyond the educational benefits they bring, international students contribute significantly to the local economy, supporting not just the institutions they attend but also the broader Victorian community. According to recent studies, the international education sector is one of Victoria’s largest export industries, contributing billions of dollars annually in direct and indirect economic activity.
For Victorian TAFEs, international students are vital to their financial sustainability. Public VET providers rely on international enrolments to diversify their income streams and maintain the quality of their educational offerings. Without a robust international student base, many TAFEs could face financial strain, forcing them to cut back on programs, staff, and services that are essential to both local and international students.
The proposed caps, if set at 2023-2024 levels, would significantly limit the ability of Victorian TAFEs to rebuild their international student numbers to pre-pandemic levels. This would not only undermine the financial stability of these institutions but also hinder their ability to provide high-quality education and training to students from all backgrounds. The VTA has emphasised that the damage done by the pandemic should not be allowed to become permanent and that policy decisions must reflect the unique circumstances that have affected Victorian TAFEs.
The VTA’s Recommendation: Setting Limits Based on Pre-Pandemic Levels
In response to the proposed international student caps, the VTA has put forward a clear and compelling recommendation: that the limits for Victorian TAFE institutes be set at pre-pandemic 2019 levels, where those levels are higher than the projected 2024 commencements. This approach would provide Victorian TAFEs with the flexibility they need to recover fully from the impact of COVID-19 and restore their international student numbers to a sustainable level.
By setting caps based on 2019 figures, the government would acknowledge the unique challenges that Victorian TAFEs have faced and provide a pathway for their recovery. This approach would also help ensure that Victorian TAFEs remain competitive in the international education market, allowing them to attract the students they need to thrive in a post-pandemic world.
Furthermore, the VTA’s recommendation aligns with broader policy goals of supporting a strong, sustainable public VET system. By enabling TAFEs to rebuild their international student base, the government would be investing in the future of the VET sector, ensuring that it remains a vital part of Victoria’s education landscape and a key driver of the state’s economic recovery.
A Call for Urgent Action: Engaging with Government Stakeholders
Recognising the severity of the situation, the VTA has been actively engaging with key government stakeholders to advocate for fair and equitable outcomes for Victorian TAFEs. In recent weeks, policy and governance relations managers from the VTA have met with the Hon Andrew Giles MP, Federal Minister for Skills and Training, to discuss the severe impact that the proposed international student caps would have on Victorian TAFEs. These discussions have been crucial in highlighting the need for a more tailored approach that reflects the specific challenges facing the Victorian VET sector.
The VTA’s engagement with the government has focused on ensuring that decision-makers understand the full implications of the proposed caps and the potential long-term damage they could cause. By working collaboratively with government officials, the VTA is striving to secure outcomes that support the recovery and growth of Victorian TAFEs while also addressing broader concerns about the sustainability of the VET sector.
The Broader Implications for the Victorian Economy
The impact of the proposed international student caps extends beyond the immediate concerns of TAFEs. International education is a major contributor to Victoria’s economy, generating jobs, supporting local businesses, and fostering cultural exchange. Any policy that restricts the flow of international students into the state will have wide-reaching consequences, affecting not just educational institutions but also the broader Victorian community.
For example, international students support thousands of jobs in areas such as hospitality, retail, and accommodation. They also contribute to the growth of Victoria’s knowledge economy, bringing diverse perspectives and skills that enhance the state’s innovation and competitiveness. Limiting the number of international students who can study in Victoria would, therefore, have a ripple effect across the economy, reducing the state’s capacity to attract global talent and undermining its position as a leading education destination.
Moreover, international students play a crucial role in addressing skills shortages in key industries. Many international students who study in Victoria go on to work in sectors such as healthcare, engineering, and information technology, helping to fill critical gaps in the local workforce. By capping international student numbers, the government risks exacerbating existing skills shortages and limiting the state’s ability to meet the demands of its growing economy.
Moving Forward: The Need for Fair and Equitable Policy Solutions
As the Victorian TAFE Association has made clear, the proposed international student caps must be revisited to ensure that they do not disproportionately impact Victorian TAFE. By setting limits based on pre-pandemic levels, the government can provide the flexibility needed to support the recovery of the VET sector and ensure that Victorian TAFEs remain competitive in the global education market.
At the same time, it is essential that the government continues to engage with key stakeholders, including the VTA, to develop policy solutions that reflect the specific challenges facing Victorian TAFEs. This collaborative approach will be crucial in ensuring that the interests of TAFEs, international students, and the broader Victorian economy are protected.
The proposed international student caps represent a significant threat to the future of Victorian TAFEs. Without urgent action to address the disproportionate impact of these caps, Victorian TAFEs could face long-term damage that will be difficult to reverse. The VTA’s recommendation to set limits based on pre-pandemic levels offers a clear and practical solution that would support the recovery of the sector and ensure its ongoing viability. As discussions with the government continue, it is essential that decision-makers recognise the importance of a fair and equitable approach that supports the recovery of Victorian TAFEs and protects the future of international education in the state.
